According to a recent study, the erratic weather patterns induced by the burning of fossil fuels may pave the way for locust swarms to venture into new territories in south and west central Asia.
The study suggests that between 2065 and 2100, the range of desert locusts could increase by up to 13 to 25 percent due to cyclical droughts, which create favorable conditions for the insects, and intermittent heavy rains, which facilitate the incubation of their eggs in moist soil.
The researchers, in their paper published last week in Science Advances, contend that the food security and livelihoods of millions of people in India, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, and Iran would be endangered. Specifically, they anticipate the emergence of new locust swarm hotspots in these countries as climate change reshapes the world. Xiaogang He, a hydrologist and environmental policy expert at the National University of Singapore and co-author of the study, warns that neglecting these risks could further strain food production systems and exacerbate global food insecurity. He shared these concerns with Carlos Mureithi of the Associated Press (AP).
Desert locusts, a type of migratory grasshopper, usually lead solitary lives. However, when drought diminishes available vegetation in their habitat, these locusts congregate and embark on one of the largest migrations known to man in search of sustenance. Traveling in groups numbering between four billion and eight billion individuals, they fill the air as they traverse vast distances, covering up to 90 miles per day across multiple countries and occupying an area of 460 square miles. Even a relatively small swarm of 80 million individuals can consume enough crops in a single day to sustain 35,000 people. Consequently, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization has labeled them “the most destructive migratory pest in the world.” Typically, they inhabit regions of Africa, the Middle East, and Southwest Asia.
The most severe locust crisis in recent history struck East Africa between 2019 and 2020, fueled by both drought and excessive rainfall, creating ideal conditions for locust breeding and proliferation. Furthermore, irregular weather patterns in other parts of the world have triggered locust swarms in areas where they are not traditionally found.
In 2019, a swarm descended upon the southern Arabian Peninsula, an area that was deemed “unsuitable for breeding due to vegetation conditions,” according to Martin Husemann, the science director of the State Museum of Natural History in Germany, who was not affiliated with the study, as reported by Bob Berwyn of Inside Climate News. Additionally, Kenya, which experienced only sporadic swarms in the late twentieth century, has now emerged as one of the global epicenters for locust activity.
The team of researchers conducted mathematical modeling to assess how various factors such as precipitation events, temperature, wind, and soil moisture could influence the movement of locust swarms across expansive regions. Concurrently, they projected the impact of global warming on future weather patterns. Their analyses unveiled a significant likelihood of synchronized “hot spots” of locust activity emerging in seemingly disparate locations simultaneously—such as Pakistan and Algeria, or India and Morocco—due to irregularities in weather patterns.
The potential devastation of crops could profoundly disrupt local, regional, and global food networks. “Considering that these nations often play crucial roles as global food suppliers and are already contending with climate-induced extremes like droughts, floods, and heatwaves, the heightened risk of locust infestations in these regions could compound existing challenges,” stated He to Raymond Zhong of The New York Times.
Cyril Piou, a plant researcher and ecologist at the Center for Biology and Management of Populations in France, who was not affiliated with the study, highlighted that the team did not adequately incorporate local pest control measures, which have mitigated the impact of locust swarms in recent decades. Furthermore, they did not engage with numerous researchers from the affected countries.
“There are numerous scientists in these countries who possess significant expertise in locust ecology and management,” he conveyed to the publication. “The researchers could have tapped into this wealth of knowledge to gain insights and prevent reaching conclusions… without fully understanding the existing ground realities.”
Piou further elaborates to Inside Climate News that forecasting rainfall is inherently imprecise, and relying on these models to predict locust swarm activity may involve a degree of presumption.
However, many researchers, including the authors of the study, concur that a significant measure to mitigate the impact of locust swarms involves strengthening international partnerships and communication. This entails utilizing emergency funding, weather data, historical records, and other resources to prepare for and address the challenges posed by these insects.
In a blog post for Entomology Today in 2022, Jody Green, an entomologist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, who was not affiliated with the study, highlighted that the desert locust crisis is less about the insect itself and more about the conflicts and insecurities among people. She emphasized that it serves as a cautionary tale illustrating the consequences of inadequate coordination among countries.
